It might be worth posting this question to Metaculus to see what the crowd-consensus view is there. I’d post a question myself there, but I’m not sure I have enough expertise to define the question and resolution properly (but it seems like you or others might).
It might be worth posting this question to Metaculus to see what the crowd-consensus view is there. I’d post a question myself there, but I’m not sure I have enough expertise to define the question and resolution properly (but it seems like you or others might).