Say I’m in a situation that sucks. Say further I have an N1% chance of improving it by some marginal amount A1 by changing my environment, if I try. It will still suck, but it will suck less. And I have a (1-N1)% chance of failing to improve it, even if I try. Say further I similarly have an N2% chance of improving it by A2 by altering my own thinking (for example, deluding myself).
If you believed (N2A2) < (N1A1), would you encourage me to (e.g.) delude myself, or to change my environment? Or would this depend on something else? (What?)
Say I’m in a situation that sucks.
Say further I have an N1% chance of improving it by some marginal amount A1 by changing my environment, if I try. It will still suck, but it will suck less. And I have a (1-N1)% chance of failing to improve it, even if I try.
Say further I similarly have an N2% chance of improving it by A2 by altering my own thinking (for example, deluding myself).
If you believed (N2A2) < (N1A1), would you encourage me to (e.g.) delude myself, or to change my environment? Or would this depend on something else? (What?)