So about what do you think it IS worth?
FYI, I think, based on experience with people whom have tried everything, that a 1% chance of finding something is unrealistically low. 20% with the first $5K and a further 30% with the next 35K would fit my past experience.
Define tried everything? Your prior is that there is a 1⁄5 chance a handful of researchers can find something helpful in 24 hours that isn’t listed in something like an Up-To-Date report on the diagnosis (a decent definition of ‘everything’)?
Does Metamed do patient tracking to see if their recommendations lead to relief? Or do they deliver a report and move on?
Your prior is that there is a 1⁄5 chance a handful of researchers can find something helpful in 24 hours that isn’t listed in something like an Up-To-Date report on the diagnosis (a decent definition of ‘everything’)?
“It is frequently stated that it takes an average of 17 years for research evidence to reach clinical practice. Balas and Bohen, Grant, and Wratschko all estimated a time lag of 17 years measuring different points of the process.”
Granted, I know very little about Up-To-Date, but I would be surprised if they completely eliminated that 17-year lag, especially in the more obscure conditions. They do, after all, have to cover all the conditions, and their return on investment is obviously going to be much higher on common conditions than on obscure ones. In fact, if they put out a fantastically detailed report on Stage III Boneitis (fictional) and nobody suffers a case that year, they’ve wasted their money. I strongly suspect Up-To-Date is aware of this, though I obviously have no way of knowing whether it affects their decisions.
MetaMed’s offer is, as far as I understand it, “pay us 5k and we’ll eliminate the 17-year lag for your particular case”. This lets them plausibly offer value that Up-To-Date can’t, in some cases.
Disclaimer: I am not associated with MetaMed, but I do think they’re cool.
Have you actually read the metamed sample reports/what do you think metamed actually does? As far as I can tell, their core product is to have a team of medical and phd students do a literature search for about 1 working day (compare to Up-to-date, where actual researchers in various fields write the reports and clinicians edit the treatment plans). This seems highly unlikely to move that 17 year lag even a little bit.
I have no horse in this race, but I have worked as a statistician for hospital researchers and for health insurance companies. I just happen to think metamed’s boosters here are dramatically underestimating the availability of evidence-based-medicine literature surveys in the clinical hospital setting.
You meant $1 mil, right?
Right, sorry.
So about what do you think it IS worth? FYI, I think, based on experience with people whom have tried everything, that a 1% chance of finding something is unrealistically low. 20% with the first $5K and a further 30% with the next 35K would fit my past experience.
Define tried everything? Your prior is that there is a 1⁄5 chance a handful of researchers can find something helpful in 24 hours that isn’t listed in something like an Up-To-Date report on the diagnosis (a decent definition of ‘everything’)?
Does Metamed do patient tracking to see if their recommendations lead to relief? Or do they deliver a report and move on?
From the body of the main post (source):
Granted, I know very little about Up-To-Date, but I would be surprised if they completely eliminated that 17-year lag, especially in the more obscure conditions. They do, after all, have to cover all the conditions, and their return on investment is obviously going to be much higher on common conditions than on obscure ones. In fact, if they put out a fantastically detailed report on Stage III Boneitis (fictional) and nobody suffers a case that year, they’ve wasted their money. I strongly suspect Up-To-Date is aware of this, though I obviously have no way of knowing whether it affects their decisions.
MetaMed’s offer is, as far as I understand it, “pay us 5k and we’ll eliminate the 17-year lag for your particular case”. This lets them plausibly offer value that Up-To-Date can’t, in some cases.
Disclaimer: I am not associated with MetaMed, but I do think they’re cool.
Have you actually read the metamed sample reports/what do you think metamed actually does? As far as I can tell, their core product is to have a team of medical and phd students do a literature search for about 1 working day (compare to Up-to-date, where actual researchers in various fields write the reports and clinicians edit the treatment plans). This seems highly unlikely to move that 17 year lag even a little bit.
I have no horse in this race, but I have worked as a statistician for hospital researchers and for health insurance companies. I just happen to think metamed’s boosters here are dramatically underestimating the availability of evidence-based-medicine literature surveys in the clinical hospital setting.