What about when you’re dealing with a medication that might kill someone, or not: in the absence of any information, do you say that’s 50-50?
You’ve already given me information by using the word medication—implicity, you’re asking me to recall what I know about medications before I render an answer. So no, those outcomes aren’t necessarily equally plausible to me. Here’s a situation which is a much better approximation(!) of total absence of information: either event Q or event J has happened just now, and I will tell you which in my next comment. The asymmetry in your information is just that I chose the label Q for the first event and J for the second event. Which event do you find more plausible? I’d like you to justify your choice, pretending (if necessary) that I am honest in this instance.
You’ve already given me information by using the word medication—implicity, you’re asking me to recall what I know about medications before I render an answer. So no, those outcomes aren’t necessarily equally plausible to me. Here’s a situation which is a much better approximation(!) of total absence of information: either event Q or event J has happened just now, and I will tell you which in my next comment. The asymmetry in your information is just that I chose the label Q for the first event and J for the second event. Which event do you find more plausible? I’d like you to justify your choice, pretending (if necessary) that I am honest in this instance.