If a well calibrated rationalist, for a given probability p, independantly believes N different things each with probability p, then you can expect about p*N of those beliefs to be correct.
See the discussion of calibration in the Technical Explanation.
If a well calibrated rationalist, for a given probability p, independantly believes N different things each with probability p, then you can expect about p*N of those beliefs to be correct.
See the discussion of calibration in the Technical Explanation.