I’m sorry, why isn’t the prior probability that you say “why yes, I am holding the ace of spades” = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant “draw a pair”, in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.
I’m sorry, why isn’t the prior probability that you say “why yes, I am holding the ace of spades” = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant “draw a pair”, in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.