Skill: The accurate and timely assessment of basic probability ie: determining a person’s likely response in any given conversation, determining odds of common occurrences, etc. The benefit to communication and the time-saving possibilities of such a skill are such that I feel any aspiring rationalist should pay specific attention to the development of basic probabilistic abilities.
I doubt it’s the most efficient method, but I’ve been running basic Bayesian math on things like “given the coin came up heads the last 20 times, should I assume it’s a fair or weighted coin?” I figure learning to do the math quickly will help me get it down to the point where I can at least ballpark the math on the 5-second level. It’s also been helping me ballpark priors, and observe how different priors can affect the math.
That’s the basic vein I was referring to; that kind of quick calculation can be applied to debate, conversation and other interpersonal contact in much the same way as it is when observing a coin.
Skill: The accurate and timely assessment of basic probability ie: determining a person’s likely response in any given conversation, determining odds of common occurrences, etc. The benefit to communication and the time-saving possibilities of such a skill are such that I feel any aspiring rationalist should pay specific attention to the development of basic probabilistic abilities.
I doubt it’s the most efficient method, but I’ve been running basic Bayesian math on things like “given the coin came up heads the last 20 times, should I assume it’s a fair or weighted coin?” I figure learning to do the math quickly will help me get it down to the point where I can at least ballpark the math on the 5-second level. It’s also been helping me ballpark priors, and observe how different priors can affect the math.
That’s the basic vein I was referring to; that kind of quick calculation can be applied to debate, conversation and other interpersonal contact in much the same way as it is when observing a coin.