I see “predicting how good a plane is without seeing it in action” closer to “predicting how nice a piece of music is by looking at a printout of its waveform”, rather than appreciating music one listens to.
(I was about to say “looking at sheet music”, but that’s closer to “looking at engineering blueprints”. Sure, in general an aerospace engineer might have a general idea of how a type of plane might perform by looking at it—like a good sound engineer could get a sense of rhythm and tempo from seeing a soundwave—but it’s hard to tell if the particular plane you’re looking at actually has a plausibly functional engine without looking at the details in a form meant for reading them, just as it’s hard to see from a soundwave if the sounds are actually pleasant or not.)
Sorry, I got a bit wordier than I meant to explaining it; the point, I don’t think “predicting a plane’s behavior” is a very good example for this discussion.
If you want an example, take something closer to what people have more-or-less efficient hardware for (as they seem to have for music). For example, one does not have to be a good athlete or sportsman to be able to appreciate one, and can predict somewhat how good an athlete might be in a particular situation by looking at one in “inactive” state. (Though, of course, accuracy and confidence would be low. It’s hard to predict the winner in a championship, similarly to how it’s hard to predict which particular song will be most popular in some genre. But one doesn’t need to be an expert to appreciate that I suck at singing as well as at basketball, most people could determine both after hearing me try a single note, or seeing my height.)
I see “predicting how good a plane is without seeing it in action” closer to “predicting how nice a piece of music is by looking at a printout of its waveform”, rather than appreciating music one listens to.
(I was about to say “looking at sheet music”, but that’s closer to “looking at engineering blueprints”. Sure, in general an aerospace engineer might have a general idea of how a type of plane might perform by looking at it—like a good sound engineer could get a sense of rhythm and tempo from seeing a soundwave—but it’s hard to tell if the particular plane you’re looking at actually has a plausibly functional engine without looking at the details in a form meant for reading them, just as it’s hard to see from a soundwave if the sounds are actually pleasant or not.)
Sorry, I got a bit wordier than I meant to explaining it; the point, I don’t think “predicting a plane’s behavior” is a very good example for this discussion.
If you want an example, take something closer to what people have more-or-less efficient hardware for (as they seem to have for music). For example, one does not have to be a good athlete or sportsman to be able to appreciate one, and can predict somewhat how good an athlete might be in a particular situation by looking at one in “inactive” state. (Though, of course, accuracy and confidence would be low. It’s hard to predict the winner in a championship, similarly to how it’s hard to predict which particular song will be most popular in some genre. But one doesn’t need to be an expert to appreciate that I suck at singing as well as at basketball, most people could determine both after hearing me try a single note, or seeing my height.)