Note that Eliezer does not give a recommendation for solving this problem. Rather, he gives advice for how to get an unbiased risk assessment. But that is only part of the problem.
Unfortunately, his solution does not solve the social problem of deciding what existential risks are worth taking. His way of getting an unbiased assessment requires not informing society of the result! The only way I could see to use it would be for society to fully delegate decision making on these matters to a committee which decides in secret. That would be hard to justify for projects like particle colliders.
And even then, Eliezer’s requirements are necessary but not sufficient. We are lucky that the LA-602 authors were not committed to making sure the nuclear bomb tests proceeded. That is not necessarily the case with particle theorists who have worked for many years to get these accelerators approved, funded and built. Analysis by partisans, even if by scientists and for scientists, is likely to be biased.
Note that Eliezer does not give a recommendation for solving this problem. Rather, he gives advice for how to get an unbiased risk assessment. But that is only part of the problem.
Unfortunately, his solution does not solve the social problem of deciding what existential risks are worth taking. His way of getting an unbiased assessment requires not informing society of the result! The only way I could see to use it would be for society to fully delegate decision making on these matters to a committee which decides in secret. That would be hard to justify for projects like particle colliders.
And even then, Eliezer’s requirements are necessary but not sufficient. We are lucky that the LA-602 authors were not committed to making sure the nuclear bomb tests proceeded. That is not necessarily the case with particle theorists who have worked for many years to get these accelerators approved, funded and built. Analysis by partisans, even if by scientists and for scientists, is likely to be biased.