First, how can we settle who has been a better forecaster so far?
The first forecaster thought it was less likely that 2 out of 3 things that didn’t occur - wouldn’t. The second forecaster thought it was more likely that 2 out of 3 things that didn’t occur—would. So I think that the first forecaster has got a pretty easy case on this one.
I think the rest of your questions seem to be thinking that the percentages are measuring something in the real world. They are a measure of the predictor’s confidence. A way to tell the world how seriously they think you should take their prediction.
What kind of argumentation can the first forecaster make to convince the other one that 42% is the ‘correct’ answer?
I don’t think he can. He is technically a little less sure that humans that will land on the Mars than second forecaster. (or, if you prefer, a little more sure that they won’t) And a 1% difference is functionally 0 difference in this situation.
If they had vastly different levels of confidence, they could discuss the gaps in the optimism/pessimism, but at 1% difference....that’s just personal preference
And what does this numerical value actually mean, as landing on Mars is not a repetitive random event nor it is a quantity which we can try measuring like the radius of Saturn?
To repeat self, They are a measure of the predictor’s confidence. A way to tell the world how seriously they think you should take their prediction.
If one believes the 42% is a better estimation than 43%, how can it help making any choices in the future?
Even if you had predictors with so many predictions that you could actually take a 1% difference seriously....I still don’t know when that 1% would matter much.
The first forecaster thought it was less likely that 2 out of 3 things that didn’t occur - wouldn’t. The second forecaster thought it was more likely that 2 out of 3 things that didn’t occur—would. So I think that the first forecaster has got a pretty easy case on this one.
I think the rest of your questions seem to be thinking that the percentages are measuring something in the real world. They are a measure of the predictor’s confidence. A way to tell the world how seriously they think you should take their prediction.
I don’t think he can. He is technically a little less sure that humans that will land on the Mars than second forecaster. (or, if you prefer, a little more sure that they won’t) And a 1% difference is functionally 0 difference in this situation.
If they had vastly different levels of confidence, they could discuss the gaps in the optimism/pessimism, but at 1% difference....that’s just personal preference
To repeat self, They are a measure of the predictor’s confidence. A way to tell the world how seriously they think you should take their prediction.
Even if you had predictors with so many predictions that you could actually take a 1% difference seriously....I still don’t know when that 1% would matter much.