What’s the probability that this is caused by aliens?
What is your own probability estimate? I am not sure I can accurately distinguish between below 1⁄100,000 and between 1⁄10,000 and 1⁄100,000. With probabilities this small I am not sure that any estimate is useful
Another way of saying “below 1⁄100,000 chance of aliens” is “above 99.999% chance of natural causes”. That seams awefully certain of the unlikelyness of aliens. I’m pretty sure it’s not aliens, but I’m not that confident. I’d happily lose a dollar in that bet, if someone wanted to wager $100,000 against it.
What is your own probability estimate? I am not sure I can accurately distinguish between below 1⁄100,000 and between 1⁄10,000 and 1⁄100,000. With probabilities this small I am not sure that any estimate is useful
Another way of saying “below 1⁄100,000 chance of aliens” is “above 99.999% chance of natural causes”. That seams awefully certain of the unlikelyness of aliens. I’m pretty sure it’s not aliens, but I’m not that confident. I’d happily lose a dollar in that bet, if someone wanted to wager $100,000 against it.
it would tell you how much more evidence you would need to begin taking it seriously. That said, agree that it’s not very useful.