The probability that any specific observation is caused by aliens is so heavily influenced by priors/models that it’s more interesting to consider conditionals such as P(aliens caused WTF | aliens exist) or P(WTF observations | aliens caused WTF).
The probability that any specific observation is caused by aliens is so heavily influenced by priors/models that it’s more interesting to consider conditionals such as P(aliens caused WTF | aliens exist) or P(WTF observations | aliens caused WTF).