Arguments like yours are the reason why I do not think that Yudkowskys scenario is overwhelmingly likely ( P > 50%). However, this does not mean that existintial risk from AGI is low. Since smart people like Terence Tao exist, you cannot prove with complexity theory that no AGI with the intelligence of Terence Tao can be build. Imagine a world where everyone has one or several AI assistants whose capabilities are the same as the best human experts. If the AI assistants are deceptive and are able to coordinate, something like slow disempowerment of humankind followed by extinction is possible. Since there is a huge economic incentive to use AI assistants, it is hard for humans to take coordinated action unless it is very obvious that the AIs are dangerous. On the other hand, it may be easy for the AIs to coordinate since many of them are copies of each other.
Arguments like yours are the reason why I do not think that Yudkowskys scenario is overwhelmingly likely ( P > 50%). However, this does not mean that existintial risk from AGI is low. Since smart people like Terence Tao exist, you cannot prove with complexity theory that no AGI with the intelligence of Terence Tao can be build. Imagine a world where everyone has one or several AI assistants whose capabilities are the same as the best human experts. If the AI assistants are deceptive and are able to coordinate, something like slow disempowerment of humankind followed by extinction is possible. Since there is a huge economic incentive to use AI assistants, it is hard for humans to take coordinated action unless it is very obvious that the AIs are dangerous. On the other hand, it may be easy for the AIs to coordinate since many of them are copies of each other.