If you don’t open your eyes and guess, you have a 0.5 chance of being right. The policy of ignoring the wall-color in front of you makes 50% of ’identical-you’s wrong about the coin toss.
Opening your eyes allows 99% of atomically ‘identical-you’s to guess the coin toss correctly, and gives the other 1% information that will lead them astray. The policy of taking the wall-colour as evidence makes 99% of ’identical-you’s correct about the coin toss.
This is as far as I am able to take the problem, to a point that I understand what’s going on. What aren’t I getting, if from here it doesn’t seem special?
If you don’t open your eyes and guess, you have a 0.5 chance of being right. The policy of ignoring the wall-color in front of you makes 50% of ’identical-you’s wrong about the coin toss.
Opening your eyes allows 99% of atomically ‘identical-you’s to guess the coin toss correctly, and gives the other 1% information that will lead them astray. The policy of taking the wall-colour as evidence makes 99% of ’identical-you’s correct about the coin toss.
This is as far as I am able to take the problem, to a point that I understand what’s going on. What aren’t I getting, if from here it doesn’t seem special?