Providing for material needs is less than 0.0000001% of the range of powers and possibilities that an AGI/ASI offers.
Imagine a scenario where we are driving from Austin to Fort Worth. The range of outcomes where we arrive at our destination is perhaps less than 0.0000001% of the total range of outcomes. There are countless potential interruptions that might prevent us from arriving at Fort Worth: traffic accidents, vehicle breakdowns, family emergencies, sudden illness, extreme weather, or even highly improbable events like alien encounters. The universe of possible outcomes is vast, and arriving safely in Fort Worth represents just one specific path through this possibility space.
Yet despite this, we reasonably expect to complete such journeys under normal circumstances. We don’t let the theoretical multitude of failure modes prevent us from making the trip. Drives like this typically succeed when basic conditions are met—a functioning vehicle, decent weather, and an alert driver.
So, as Seth Herd correctly points out, it all ends up depending on whether we can manage to align AGI (and deal with other issues such as governance or economy). And that’s a very large topic with a very wide range of opinions.
Imagine a scenario where we are driving from Austin to Fort Worth. The range of outcomes where we arrive at our destination is perhaps less than 0.0000001% of the total range of outcomes. There are countless potential interruptions that might prevent us from arriving at Fort Worth: traffic accidents, vehicle breakdowns, family emergencies, sudden illness, extreme weather, or even highly improbable events like alien encounters. The universe of possible outcomes is vast, and arriving safely in Fort Worth represents just one specific path through this possibility space.
Yet despite this, we reasonably expect to complete such journeys under normal circumstances. We don’t let the theoretical multitude of failure modes prevent us from making the trip. Drives like this typically succeed when basic conditions are met—a functioning vehicle, decent weather, and an alert driver.
So, as Seth Herd correctly points out, it all ends up depending on whether we can manage to align AGI (and deal with other issues such as governance or economy). And that’s a very large topic with a very wide range of opinions.