Agreed with this given how many orders of magnitude potential values span.Rescinding my previous statement:> I also think the amount of probability I assign to 1%-99% futures is (~10x?) larger than the amount I assign to >99% futures.I’d now say that probably the probability of 1%-99% optimal futures is <10% of the probability of >99% optimal futures.This is because 1% optimal is very close to being optimal (only 2 orders of magnitude away out of dozens of orders of magnitude of very good futures).
Agreed with this given how many orders of magnitude potential values span.
Rescinding my previous statement:
> I also think the amount of probability I assign to 1%-99% futures is (~10x?) larger than the amount I assign to >99% futures.
I’d now say that probably the probability of 1%-99% optimal futures is <10% of the probability of >99% optimal futures.
This is because 1% optimal is very close to being optimal (only 2 orders of magnitude away out of dozens of orders of magnitude of very good futures).