The 15% is an upper estimate of people estimating ‘some loss’ of health, so not everyone would be severely disabled.
Unfortunately, the data isn’t great, and I can’t produce a robust estimate right now
FYI, Alyssa Vance provided additional disability statistics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4z3FBfmEHmqnz3NEY/long-covid-risk-how-to-maintain-an-up-to-date-risk?commentId=GKmqE9PKXfRSKb5PC which suggest “serious, long-term illness from COVID is pretty unlikely.”
Siebe, I would be interested to hear your take on that, since you seem to have a substantially more pessimistic view of this.
The 15% is an upper estimate of people estimating ‘some loss’ of health, so not everyone would be severely disabled.
Unfortunately, the data isn’t great, and I can’t produce a robust estimate right now
FYI, Alyssa Vance provided additional disability statistics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4z3FBfmEHmqnz3NEY/long-covid-risk-how-to-maintain-an-up-to-date-risk?commentId=GKmqE9PKXfRSKb5PC which suggest “serious, long-term illness from COVID is pretty unlikely.”
Siebe, I would be interested to hear your take on that, since you seem to have a substantially more pessimistic view of this.