I assume this is for one location, so have you done any modeling or estimations of what the global prevalence would be at that point? If you get lucky, it could be very low. But it also could be a lot higher if you get unlucky.
We haven’t done modeling on this, but I did write some a few months ago (Sample Prevalence vs Global Prevalence) laying out the question. It would be great if someone did want to work on this!
Have you done any cost-effectiveness analyses?
An end-to-end cost-effectiveness analysis is quite hard because it depends critically on how likely you think someone is to try to create a stealth pandemic. We’ve done modeling on “how much would it cost to detect a stealth pandemic before X% of people are infected” but we’re not unusually well placed to answer “how likely is a stealth pandemic” or “how useful is it for us to raise the alarm”.
We haven’t done modeling on this, but I did write some a few months ago (Sample Prevalence vs Global Prevalence) laying out the question. It would be great if someone did want to work on this!
An end-to-end cost-effectiveness analysis is quite hard because it depends critically on how likely you think someone is to try to create a stealth pandemic. We’ve done modeling on “how much would it cost to detect a stealth pandemic before X% of people are infected” but we’re not unusually well placed to answer “how likely is a stealth pandemic” or “how useful is it for us to raise the alarm”.