I appreciated your post, (indeed, I found it very moving) and found some of the other comments frustrating as I believe you did. I think, though, that I can see a part of where they are coming from. I’ll preface by saying I don’t have strong beliefs on this myself, but I’ll try to translate (my guess at) their world model.
I think the typical EA/LWer thinks that most charities are ineffective to the point of uselessness, and this is due to them not being smart/rational about a lot of things (and are very familiar with examples like the millennium village). They probably believe it costs roughly 5000 USD to save a life, which makes your line “Many of us are used to the ads that boast of every 2-3 dollars saving a life...” read like you haven’t engaged much with their world. They agree that institutions matter a huge amount and that many forms of aid fail because of bad institutions.
They probably also believe the exact shape of the dose-response curve to treating poverty with direct aid is unknown, but have a prior of it being positively sloped but flatter than we wish. There is a popular rationalist technique of “if x seems like it is helping the problem, just not as much as you wish, try way way more x.” (Eg, light for SAD)
I would guess your post reads to them like someone finding out that the dose-response curve is very flat and and that many charities are ineffective and then writing “maybe the dose-response curve isn’t even positively sloped!” It reads to them like the claim “no (feasible) amount of direct aid will help with poverty” followed by evidence that the slope is not as steep as we all wish. I don’t think any of your evidence suggests aid cannot have a positive effect, just that the amount necessary for that effect to be permanent is quite high.
Add this to your ending by donating money to give directly, and it seems like you either are behaving irrationally, or you agree that it has some marginal positive impact and were preaching to the choir.
As I said, I appreciated it, and the work that goes into making your world model and preparing it for posting, and engaging with commenters. Thank you.
Hm… yes, upon further reflection your summarization seems accurate, or at least highly plausible. I am not too sure what the mindset of the average LWer or EA looks like myself. (although I’ve frequented the site for some time, I’m mainly reading random frontpage posts that pique my interest, I don’t attend meetups, participate in group activities, or much other things of that nature) It’s not merely reading like I haven’t engaged much in their world. The truth is I simply haven’t, I have no intention of hiding it. I tagged the post EA because my points on aid address charities in general quite broadly, and so I thought it would be of interest to EA adjacent individuals. I also hoped that they might be able to enlighten me a bit on the many parts of EA I still don’t fully understand. The post was never meant to critique or even focus on EA.
This may have gotten lost in everything else I was attempting to do in the post, but one of the central motivations was to disprove a point I saw in a RA fundraiser that unconditional cash transfers could ‘eradicate’ global poverty. I found the initiative commendable, but unrealistic for a variety of reasons, many of which I detailed in the post. I never meant to say the aid wouldn’t help, but rather, it was likely insufficient to meet their goal of ending long term poverty.
That said, yes, you are right. My evidence does not support the claim that aid is completely ineffective in ending long term poverty. But rather, that aid requires much higher volumes to solve the long term issues, in conjunction with many other things. In my mind this was still meant aid was an inadequate solution since I didn’t believe the volumes required to solve the issue would be a reasonable demand upon charity or foreign aid (just look at the enormous price tag of millennium villages). Thinking back, I probably exaggerated a bit in the title and in some of my claims. While the logical points may have been sound, I may have mispresented them in the title and elsewhere. (I realize I sound a bit silly in hindsight, it’s easy to see how people might interpret the phrase ‘doesn’t work’ as useless versus inefficient to the point of implausibility)
I think part of my issue with this post is that I’m really just uncertain what my audience believes and how they might react or interpret different things I say. While I have some idea and a few vague guesses, there’s no real way to know for certain. I’m also unsure if I would have any way of knowing without simply accruing direct experience, but your thoughts definitely helped me in this regard. I will keep in mind your model of LW when making posts in the future. Thanks once again!
That said, do you have any critiques/questions regarding the post personally? I’d be happy to continue chatting about any potential weak spots or logical errors.
I appreciated your post, (indeed, I found it very moving) and found some of the other comments frustrating as I believe you did. I think, though, that I can see a part of where they are coming from. I’ll preface by saying I don’t have strong beliefs on this myself, but I’ll try to translate (my guess at) their world model.
I think the typical EA/LWer thinks that most charities are ineffective to the point of uselessness, and this is due to them not being smart/rational about a lot of things (and are very familiar with examples like the millennium village). They probably believe it costs roughly 5000 USD to save a life, which makes your line “Many of us are used to the ads that boast of every 2-3 dollars saving a life...” read like you haven’t engaged much with their world. They agree that institutions matter a huge amount and that many forms of aid fail because of bad institutions.
They probably also believe the exact shape of the dose-response curve to treating poverty with direct aid is unknown, but have a prior of it being positively sloped but flatter than we wish. There is a popular rationalist technique of “if x seems like it is helping the problem, just not as much as you wish, try way way more x.” (Eg, light for SAD)
I would guess your post reads to them like someone finding out that the dose-response curve is very flat and and that many charities are ineffective and then writing “maybe the dose-response curve isn’t even positively sloped!” It reads to them like the claim “no (feasible) amount of direct aid will help with poverty” followed by evidence that the slope is not as steep as we all wish. I don’t think any of your evidence suggests aid cannot have a positive effect, just that the amount necessary for that effect to be permanent is quite high.
Add this to your ending by donating money to give directly, and it seems like you either are behaving irrationally, or you agree that it has some marginal positive impact and were preaching to the choir.
As I said, I appreciated it, and the work that goes into making your world model and preparing it for posting, and engaging with commenters. Thank you.
Thanks so much for your comment!
Hm… yes, upon further reflection your summarization seems accurate, or at least highly plausible. I am not too sure what the mindset of the average LWer or EA looks like myself. (although I’ve frequented the site for some time, I’m mainly reading random frontpage posts that pique my interest, I don’t attend meetups, participate in group activities, or much other things of that nature) It’s not merely reading like I haven’t engaged much in their world. The truth is I simply haven’t, I have no intention of hiding it. I tagged the post EA because my points on aid address charities in general quite broadly, and so I thought it would be of interest to EA adjacent individuals. I also hoped that they might be able to enlighten me a bit on the many parts of EA I still don’t fully understand. The post was never meant to critique or even focus on EA.
This may have gotten lost in everything else I was attempting to do in the post, but one of the central motivations was to disprove a point I saw in a RA fundraiser that unconditional cash transfers could ‘eradicate’ global poverty. I found the initiative commendable, but unrealistic for a variety of reasons, many of which I detailed in the post. I never meant to say the aid wouldn’t help, but rather, it was likely insufficient to meet their goal of ending long term poverty.
That said, yes, you are right. My evidence does not support the claim that aid is completely ineffective in ending long term poverty. But rather, that aid requires much higher volumes to solve the long term issues, in conjunction with many other things. In my mind this was still meant aid was an inadequate solution since I didn’t believe the volumes required to solve the issue would be a reasonable demand upon charity or foreign aid (just look at the enormous price tag of millennium villages). Thinking back, I probably exaggerated a bit in the title and in some of my claims. While the logical points may have been sound, I may have mispresented them in the title and elsewhere. (I realize I sound a bit silly in hindsight, it’s easy to see how people might interpret the phrase ‘doesn’t work’ as useless versus inefficient to the point of implausibility)
I think part of my issue with this post is that I’m really just uncertain what my audience believes and how they might react or interpret different things I say. While I have some idea and a few vague guesses, there’s no real way to know for certain. I’m also unsure if I would have any way of knowing without simply accruing direct experience, but your thoughts definitely helped me in this regard. I will keep in mind your model of LW when making posts in the future. Thanks once again!
That said, do you have any critiques/questions regarding the post personally? I’d be happy to continue chatting about any potential weak spots or logical errors.