If I mostly wanted to raise the status of the effective altruism movement, I wouldn’t push a policy proposal as unpopular as variolation—but it might become more popular as people become better at marketing it?
Doing variolation without doing animal trials first is going to be unpopular as it’s an untested and potentially dangerous procedure.
The popular way to do it would be to call for animal trials of variolation.
It depends on what you mean by “unpopular”. If you mean that someone is going to ignore the lives that would be saved and accuse you of being uncaring, then that’s certainly true and you would need to be ready to deal with that.
On the other hand, if you mean that everyone would actually be against this idea then I think you’re wrong. I’ve been floating the idea every time I end up in a discussion about this virus, and while my conversations can’t be taken as completely representative, it’s worth noting that not once have I had anyone say it’s a bad idea. The most negative I’ve gotten was “that’s interesting”, and most of the other people I’ve talked to have said that they would do it right now and that so would a lot of their friends.
In a situation where the risks for healthy young people are low and eventual infection is likely anyway, “If people are going to get sick anyway, let them do it on their terms so that it can be as safe as possible” is not a hard argument to win, and the people who need to be convinced are likely far more sympathetic to such ideas than you think.
We just need to create the common knowledge that such ideas are thinkable and doesn’t have to be a politically losing stance. A lot of “common knowledge” stances have turned out to be wrong and to flip overnight, and you’d be offering people a chance to be ahead of the curve and the first to jump on the winning team that saved the day. It’d have to be done deliberately and carefully, but if you do it right people will take it.
Doing variolation without doing animal trials first is going to be unpopular as it’s an untested and potentially dangerous procedure.
The popular way to do it would be to call for animal trials of variolation.
It depends on what you mean by “unpopular”. If you mean that someone is going to ignore the lives that would be saved and accuse you of being uncaring, then that’s certainly true and you would need to be ready to deal with that.
On the other hand, if you mean that everyone would actually be against this idea then I think you’re wrong. I’ve been floating the idea every time I end up in a discussion about this virus, and while my conversations can’t be taken as completely representative, it’s worth noting that not once have I had anyone say it’s a bad idea. The most negative I’ve gotten was “that’s interesting”, and most of the other people I’ve talked to have said that they would do it right now and that so would a lot of their friends.
In a situation where the risks for healthy young people are low and eventual infection is likely anyway, “If people are going to get sick anyway, let them do it on their terms so that it can be as safe as possible” is not a hard argument to win, and the people who need to be convinced are likely far more sympathetic to such ideas than you think.
We just need to create the common knowledge that such ideas are thinkable and doesn’t have to be a politically losing stance. A lot of “common knowledge” stances have turned out to be wrong and to flip overnight, and you’d be offering people a chance to be ahead of the curve and the first to jump on the winning team that saved the day. It’d have to be done deliberately and carefully, but if you do it right people will take it.