Spohn changed his mind in 2003, and his 2012 paper is his best endorsement of one-boxing on Newcomb using CDT. Irritatingly, his explanation doesn’t rely on the mathematics as heavily as it could- his NP1 obviously doesn’t describe the situation because a necessary condition of NP1 is that, conditioned on the reward, your action and Omega’s prediction are independent, which is false. (Hat tip to lukeprog.)
That CDTers were wrong does not mean they always will be wrong, or even that they are wrong now!
Spohn changed his mind in 2003, and his 2012 paper is his best endorsement of one-boxing on Newcomb using CDT. Irritatingly, his explanation doesn’t rely on the mathematics as heavily as it could- his NP1 obviously doesn’t describe the situation because a necessary condition of NP1 is that, conditioned on the reward, your action and Omega’s prediction are independent, which is false. (Hat tip to lukeprog.)
That CDTers were wrong does not mean they always will be wrong, or even that they are wrong now!