“The size of the COVID-19 reproduction number documented in the literature is relatively small. Our estimates indicate that R0= 26.5, in the case that the asymptomatic sub-population is accounted for. In this scenario, the peek of symptomatic infections is reached in 36 days with approximately 9.5% of the entire population showing symptoms, as shown in Figure 3.”
I think they estimate about 1 million severe cases in the US alone if left unchecked at the peak.
“It is unlikely that a pathogen that blankets the planet in three months can have a basic reproduction number in the vicinity of 3, as it has been reported in the literature (19–24). SARS-CoV-2 is probably among the most contagious pathogens known. Unlike the SARS-CoV epidemic in 2003 (25), where only symptomatic individuals were capable of transmitting the disease. Asymptomatic carriers of the COVID-19 virus are most likely capable of transmission to the same degree as symptomatic.”
“This study shows that the population of individuals with asymptomatic COVID-19 infections are driving the growth of the pandemic. The value of R0 we calculated is nearly one order of magnitude larger than the estimates that have been communicated in the literature up to this point in the development of the pandemic”
“DISCLAIMER: The following estimates were computed using 2010 US Census data with 2016 population projections and the percentages of clinical cases and mortality events reported in Mainland China by the Chinese Center for Disease Control as of February 11th, 2020. CCDC Weekly / Vol. 2 / No. 8, page 115, Table 1. The following estimates represent a worst-case scenario, which is unlikely to materialize. • Maximum number of symptomatic cases = 34,653,921 • Maximum number of mild cases = 28,035,022 • Maximum number of severe cases = 4,782,241 • Maximum number of critical cases = 1,628,734 • Maximum number of deaths = 3,439,516”
And yet another preprint estimating the R0 to be 26.5:
Quotes from paper:
“The size of the COVID-19 reproduction number documented in the literature is relatively small. Our estimates indicate that R0= 26.5, in the case that the asymptomatic sub-population is accounted for. In this scenario, the peek of symptomatic infections is reached in 36 days with approximately 9.5% of the entire population showing symptoms, as shown in Figure 3.”
I think they estimate about 1 million severe cases in the US alone if left unchecked at the peak.
“It is unlikely that a pathogen that blankets the planet in three months can have a basic reproduction number in the vicinity of 3, as it has been reported in the literature (19–24). SARS-CoV-2 is probably among the most contagious pathogens known. Unlike the SARS-CoV epidemic in 2003 (25), where only symptomatic individuals were capable of transmitting the disease. Asymptomatic carriers of the COVID-19 virus are most likely capable of transmission to the same degree as symptomatic.”
“This study shows that the population of individuals with asymptomatic COVID-19 infections are driving the growth of the pandemic. The value of R0 we calculated is nearly one order of magnitude larger than the estimates that have been communicated in the literature up to this point in the development of the pandemic”
from supplementary materials:
“DISCLAIMER: The following estimates were computed using 2010 US Census data with 2016 population projections and the percentages of clinical cases and mortality events reported in Mainland China by the Chinese Center for Disease Control as of February 11th, 2020. CCDC Weekly / Vol. 2 / No. 8, page 115, Table 1. The following estimates represent a worst-case scenario, which is unlikely to materialize. • Maximum number of symptomatic cases = 34,653,921 • Maximum number of mild cases = 28,035,022 • Maximum number of severe cases = 4,782,241 • Maximum number of critical cases = 1,628,734 • Maximum number of deaths = 3,439,516”
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/18qaRKnQG1GoXamnzJwkHu2GG9xCe4w8_