From Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 (written in 1999):
On Politics and Society
People are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers. Automated personalities are superior to humans in some ways, such as having very reliable memories and, if desired, predictable (and programmable) personalities. They are not yet regarded as equal to humans in the subtlety of their personalities, although there is disagreement on this point.
An undercurrent of concern is developing with regard to the influence of machine intelligence. There continue to be differences between human and machine intelligence, but the advantages of human intelligence are becoming more difficult to identify and articulate. Computer intelligence is thoroughly interwoven into the mechanisms of civilization and is designed to be outwardly subservient to apparent human control. On the one hand, human transactions and decisions require by law a human agent of responsibility, even if fully initiated by machine intelligence. On the other hand, few decisions are made without significant involvement and consultation with machine‐based intelligence.
Public and private spaces are routinely monitored by machine intelligence to prevent interpersonal violence. People attempt to protect their privacy with near‐unbreakable encryption technologies, but privacy continues to be a major political and social issue with each individualʹs practically every move stored in a database somewhere.
The existence of the human underclass continues as an issue. While there is sufficient prosperity to provide basic necessities (secure housing and food, among others) without significant strain to the economy, old controversies persist regarding issues of responsibility and opportunity. The issue is complicated by the growing component of most employmentʹs being concerned with the employeeʹs own learning and skill acquisition. In other words, the difference between those ʺproductivelyʺ engaged and those who are not is not always clear.
On The Arts
Virtual artists in all of the arts are emerging and are taken seriously. These cybernetic visual artists, musicians, and authors are usually affiliated with humans or organizations (which in turn are comprised of collaborations of humans and machines) that have contributed to their knowledge base and techniques. However, interest in the output of these creative machines has gone beyond the mere novelty of machines being creative.
Visual, musical, and literary art created by human artists typically involve a collaboration between human and machine intelligence.
The type of artistic and entertainment product in greatest demand (as measured by revenue generated) continues to be virtual‐experience software, which ranges from simulations of ʺrealʺ experiences to abstract environments with little or no corollary in the physical world.
On Philosophy:
There are prevalent reports of computers passing the Turing Test, although these instances do not meet the criteria (with regard to the sophistication of the human judge, the length of time for the interviews, etcetera) established by knowledgeable observers. There is a consensus that computers have not yet passed a valid Turing Test, but there is growing controversy on this point.
The subjective experience of computer‐based intelligence is seriously discussed, although the rights of machine intelligence have not yet entered mainstream debate. Machine intelligence is still largely the product of a collaboration between humans and machines, and has been programmed to maintain a subservient relationship to the species that created it.
From Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 (written in 1999):
On Politics and Society
On The Arts
On Philosophy: