Interesting bet on AI progress (with actual money) made in 1968:
1968 – Scottish chess champion David Levy makes a 500 pound bet with AI pioneers John McCarthy and Donald Michie that no computer program would win a chess match against him within 10 years.
1978 – David Levy wins the bet made 10 years earlier, defeating Chess 4.7 in a six-game match by a score of 4½–1½. The computer’s victory in game four is the first defeat of a human master in a tournament
In 1973, Levy wrote:
“Clearly, I shall win my … bet in 1978, and I would still win if the period were to be extended for another ten years. Prompted by the lack of conceptual progress over more than two decades, I am tempted to speculate that a computer program will not gain the title of International Master before the turn of the century and that the idea of an electronic world champion belongs only in the pages of a science fiction book.”
After winning the bet:
“I had proved that my 1968 assessment had been correct, but on the other hand my opponent in this match was very, very much stronger than I had thought possible when I started the bet.”He observed that, “Now nothing would surprise me (very much).”
In 1996, Popular Science asked Levy about Garry Kasparov’s impending match against Deep Blue. Levy confidently stated that ”...Kasparov can take the match 6 to 0 if he wants to. ‘I’m positive, I’d stake my life on it.’” In fact, Kasparov lost the first game, and won the match by a score of only 4–2. The following year, he lost their historic rematch 2.5–3.5.
So seems like he very much underestimated progress in chess despite winning the original bet.
Interesting bet on AI progress (with actual money) made in 1968:
1968 – Scottish chess champion David Levy makes a 500 pound bet with AI pioneers John McCarthy and Donald Michie that no computer program would win a chess match against him within 10 years.
1978 – David Levy wins the bet made 10 years earlier, defeating Chess 4.7 in a six-game match by a score of 4½–1½. The computer’s victory in game four is the first defeat of a human master in a tournament
In 1973, Levy wrote:
After winning the bet:
So seems like he very much underestimated progress in chess despite winning the original bet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Levy_(chess_player)