:) It was just a good month—most of the entries are correlated: the fall of SR set off the spectacular rise in Bitcoin, the bet was based on unwarranted pessimism re the rise, the blackmarket turmoil made my expertise in blackmarkets of unusual interest to mainstream media, the turmoil prompted me to try to puncture unwarranted optimism by doing the public bet and also the survival analysis & DPR estimation, the Bitcoin rise also helped prompt the Sheep theft (which then unlocked the doxing)...
The only really uncorrelated parts are finally finishing Radiance (which was just a matter of time), and being contacted out of the blue with 2 new Zeo datasets.
I follow you on G+. It’s the unrelenting, what-I-did-this-month posts, every month, that I find so impressive.
Btw, I had a random thought the other day. I don’t remember reading your thoughts on GiveWell, but I see that in the past you’ve done freelance research and writing for MIRI and others, and it seems to me that your brand of efficient research (esp. w/ your emphasis on statistical analysis) might be a good fit for some of GW’s shallow investigations.
Not sure if you’re looking for more work beyond all the projects you’ve already got going on, but I just wanted to pass that idea along, in case it might seem promising and hadn’t occurred to you.
I follow you on G+. It’s the unrelenting, what-I-did-this-month posts, every month, that I find so impressive.
Oh. Fair enough! I started the monthly posts as a trial run for seeing whether I could handle a monthly summary or not, before I tried starting up a mailing list. It seemed to go pretty well so I decided to open one up this December.
Btw, I had a random thought the other day. I don’t remember reading your thoughts on GiveWell
I thought about it in the past, and was actually why I volunteered for them shortly. I never did write that up, did I? In any case, at the time I had no particular credentials for them or real statistical skills so it didn’t go anywhere. Part of the problem was that they put an emphasis on their employees being physically present at their Chinatown, IIRC, offices in NYC. At the time I was not very near NYC, and I’m even further away now. And considering the idea at the present, Givewell seems to be moving away from statistical approaches. So… It’s not a bad idea, but events seem to be conspiring to render it ever more remote an outcome.
:) It was just a good month—most of the entries are correlated: the fall of SR set off the spectacular rise in Bitcoin, the bet was based on unwarranted pessimism re the rise, the blackmarket turmoil made my expertise in blackmarkets of unusual interest to mainstream media, the turmoil prompted me to try to puncture unwarranted optimism by doing the public bet and also the survival analysis & DPR estimation, the Bitcoin rise also helped prompt the Sheep theft (which then unlocked the doxing)...
The only really uncorrelated parts are finally finishing Radiance (which was just a matter of time), and being contacted out of the blue with 2 new Zeo datasets.
I follow you on G+. It’s the unrelenting, what-I-did-this-month posts, every month, that I find so impressive.
Btw, I had a random thought the other day. I don’t remember reading your thoughts on GiveWell, but I see that in the past you’ve done freelance research and writing for MIRI and others, and it seems to me that your brand of efficient research (esp. w/ your emphasis on statistical analysis) might be a good fit for some of GW’s shallow investigations.
Not sure if you’re looking for more work beyond all the projects you’ve already got going on, but I just wanted to pass that idea along, in case it might seem promising and hadn’t occurred to you.
Oh. Fair enough! I started the monthly posts as a trial run for seeing whether I could handle a monthly summary or not, before I tried starting up a mailing list. It seemed to go pretty well so I decided to open one up this December.
I thought about it in the past, and was actually why I volunteered for them shortly. I never did write that up, did I? In any case, at the time I had no particular credentials for them or real statistical skills so it didn’t go anywhere. Part of the problem was that they put an emphasis on their employees being physically present at their Chinatown, IIRC, offices in NYC. At the time I was not very near NYC, and I’m even further away now. And considering the idea at the present, Givewell seems to be moving away from statistical approaches. So… It’s not a bad idea, but events seem to be conspiring to render it ever more remote an outcome.
Minor: GiveWell is in SF now.
Oh. That makes things even worse then. At least then and now I was on the right coast.