There is always a danger of being overconfident in our beliefs. So it is a very good idea to take the conventional wisdom seriously when we are dealing with high-stakes situations, and plan in a way that won’t lead to a disaster according to the outside view.
I can summarize this post as follows:
There is always a danger of being overconfident in our beliefs. So it is a very good idea to take the conventional wisdom seriously when we are dealing with high-stakes situations, and plan in a way that won’t lead to a disaster according to the outside view.
That more or less covers the advice at the end, but the rest of my post feels very valuable to my model of rationality.