Nitpick: 10 rounds of the calibration and credence games isn’t enough to conclude very much.
When we’ve done calibration exercises at our meetups (twice that I know of: once with Wits and Wagers questions, and once with properties of everyday objects), we went for 20-30 rounds, and we also did 50% and 90% confidence intervals for each round.
Nitpick: 10 rounds of the calibration and credence games isn’t enough to conclude very much.
When we’ve done calibration exercises at our meetups (twice that I know of: once with Wits and Wagers questions, and once with properties of everyday objects), we went for 20-30 rounds, and we also did 50% and 90% confidence intervals for each round.
Have you tried prediction markets in any form? We are going to introduce it to our meetup group and use it as calibration practice.
No we haven’t.