It seems like a better model to say the strategies are:
1. Does (respectable source) say I should panic?
2. Researching a thing to see how serious it is.
So it’s less “pessimism” and more people trying to ring the alarm earlier. Your perceived high quality sources may have good track records—but if they’re all correlated (possibly from talking to each other and reaching a consensus), then looking at an independent source gives more information than looking at another one of them.
Are earlier alarms useful? Yes, but they go off more often, so more filtering is needed (since it hasn’t been done before hand to the same standards).
It seems like a better model to say the strategies are:
1. Does (respectable source) say I should panic?
2. Researching a thing to see how serious it is.
So it’s less “pessimism” and more people trying to ring the alarm earlier. Your perceived high quality sources may have good track records—but if they’re all correlated (possibly from talking to each other and reaching a consensus), then looking at an independent source gives more information than looking at another one of them.
Are earlier alarms useful? Yes, but they go off more often, so more filtering is needed (since it hasn’t been done before hand to the same standards).