It could be argued that it’s all ignorance. The die will roll the way that physics demands, based on the velocity, roll, pitch, yaw of the die, and the surface properties of the felt. There’s only one possible outcome, you just don’t know it yet. If you roll a die in an opaque cup, the uncertainty does not change in kind from the time you start shaking it to the time you slam it down—it’s all the same ignorance until you actually look.
You can, if you like, believe that there is unknowability at the quantum level, but even that doesn’t imply true randomness, just ignorance of which branch you’ll find your perceptive trail following.
Luckily (heh), Bayes’ Theorem doesn’t care. It works for updating predictions on evidence, regardless of where uncertainty comes from.
It could be argued that it’s all ignorance. The die will roll the way that physics demands, based on the velocity, roll, pitch, yaw of the die, and the surface properties of the felt. There’s only one possible outcome, you just don’t know it yet. If you roll a die in an opaque cup, the uncertainty does not change in kind from the time you start shaking it to the time you slam it down—it’s all the same ignorance until you actually look.
You can, if you like, believe that there is unknowability at the quantum level, but even that doesn’t imply true randomness, just ignorance of which branch you’ll find your perceptive trail following.
I’m not going to argue for unknowability at the quantum level, but I will argue (in the next post) that you are not sufficiently smart to differentiate precisely enough between the different possible situations, and that’s why you have to group a bunch of different situations together, and that’s how you get what I call randomness. I’m not arguing for or against any kind of “true” randomness. I agree that you can argue it’s all ignorance, but (I claim) not doing so will solve a lot of problems
It could be argued that it’s all ignorance. The die will roll the way that physics demands, based on the velocity, roll, pitch, yaw of the die, and the surface properties of the felt.
Assuming physics is deterministic, which is not known to be the case.
You can, if you like, believe that there is unknowability at the quantum level, but even that doesn’t imply true randomness, just ignorance of which branch you’ll find your perceptive trail following
Assuming MWI is the correct interpretation of QM, which is also not known to he the case.
It could be argued that it’s all ignorance. The die will roll the way that physics demands, based on the velocity, roll, pitch, yaw of the die, and the surface properties of the felt. There’s only one possible outcome, you just don’t know it yet. If you roll a die in an opaque cup, the uncertainty does not change in kind from the time you start shaking it to the time you slam it down—it’s all the same ignorance until you actually look.
You can, if you like, believe that there is unknowability at the quantum level, but even that doesn’t imply true randomness, just ignorance of which branch you’ll find your perceptive trail following.
Luckily (heh), Bayes’ Theorem doesn’t care. It works for updating predictions on evidence, regardless of where uncertainty comes from.
I’m not going to argue for unknowability at the quantum level, but I will argue (in the next post) that you are not sufficiently smart to differentiate precisely enough between the different possible situations, and that’s why you have to group a bunch of different situations together, and that’s how you get what I call randomness. I’m not arguing for or against any kind of “true” randomness. I agree that you can argue it’s all ignorance, but (I claim) not doing so will solve a lot of problems
Assuming physics is deterministic, which is not known to be the case.
Assuming MWI is the correct interpretation of QM, which is also not known to he the case.