Very delayed response, sorry. I suspect that by the time we have a vaccine ready to go on a mass scale, it won’t make a huge difference. People will return to life before then, for the most part. Not sure if the most vulnerable are able to get vaccines or if that is dangerous—if they can, it will make a difference for them. I don’t think it will eradicate the disease because not everyone will choose to get it (especially as it seems dangerous side effects could be a thing with this vaccine, due to the autoimmune response, and being comfortable about this will take years, and it isn’t clear how dangerous it is for most people), it would be a huge and imperfect effort even if we mandated it, and presumably the disease will change over time, requiring new vaccinations. So I don’t think a vaccine is going to be what changes things here. Obviously, it is still playing out, and the data about risks that comes out regarding both the disease and the vaccine, along with other practical issues, will affect the final outcome.
I did specify long-term, which for me meant time-frames of around a year to a decade out. Honestly, I suspect you’re largely right about the short-term.
Well, except I might be more optimistic about vaccination efforts. Effective vaccination pushes in the past give me some hope.
Also, the mutation rate is a good bit lower than the seasonal flu. SARS-CoV-2′s point-mutations per year is around 28 substitutions, which is about 1⁄2 as many as the flu. Or around 1⁄3 the rate, at ~1.1e-3 subs per site per year, compared to flu’s 3.3 subs per site per year. (Different genome lengths, hence the different answers.)
Very delayed response, sorry. I suspect that by the time we have a vaccine ready to go on a mass scale, it won’t make a huge difference. People will return to life before then, for the most part. Not sure if the most vulnerable are able to get vaccines or if that is dangerous—if they can, it will make a difference for them. I don’t think it will eradicate the disease because not everyone will choose to get it (especially as it seems dangerous side effects could be a thing with this vaccine, due to the autoimmune response, and being comfortable about this will take years, and it isn’t clear how dangerous it is for most people), it would be a huge and imperfect effort even if we mandated it, and presumably the disease will change over time, requiring new vaccinations. So I don’t think a vaccine is going to be what changes things here. Obviously, it is still playing out, and the data about risks that comes out regarding both the disease and the vaccine, along with other practical issues, will affect the final outcome.
I did specify long-term, which for me meant time-frames of around a year to a decade out. Honestly, I suspect you’re largely right about the short-term.
Well, except I might be more optimistic about vaccination efforts. Effective vaccination pushes in the past give me some hope.
Also, the mutation rate is a good bit lower than the seasonal flu. SARS-CoV-2′s point-mutations per year is around 28 substitutions, which is about 1⁄2 as many as the flu. Or around 1⁄3 the rate, at ~1.1e-3 subs per site per year, compared to flu’s 3.3 subs per site per year. (Different genome lengths, hence the different answers.)