It could be interesting to look at self-driving cars. This could be defined as any car that doesn’t depend on human input for things like speed, driving accuracy, etc. I estimate that a self-driving car would reduce car crashes by something between 50% and 80%.
Since there are already pretty successful self-driving cars, I expect that the goal above would reached within 10 years if research were 10 times greater than today.
Try to give an estimate with:
R(0) in $;
B either in QALYs of the life saved or $ saved by medical insurance companies (or the government, where appliable);
It could be interesting to look at self-driving cars. This could be defined as any car that doesn’t depend on human input for things like speed, driving accuracy, etc. I estimate that a self-driving car would reduce car crashes by something between 50% and 80%.
Since there are already pretty successful self-driving cars, I expect that the goal above would reached within 10 years if research were 10 times greater than today.
Try to give an estimate with:
R(0) in $;
B either in QALYs of the life saved or $ saved by medical insurance companies (or the government, where appliable);
I would put p at 0.8, with y/z at 10
Seems interesting. Paul Christiano looked into some of these figures, and without deeper investigation I’m happy to use figures from that.
It suggests R(0) = $0.5b, and B = $200B. Putting that into the spreadsheet gets a benefit:cost ratio of about 140 to 1.