Or in other words: one’s analysis has to be unusually careful if it is to justify a resulting probability as low as 3/2048. Absent a terribly careful analysis, if one is trying to estimate some quantity that kinda sounds plausible or about which experts disagree (e.g., not “chances we’ll have a major earthquake during such-and-such a particular milisecond), one should probably just remember the overconfidence results and be wary of assigning a probability that’s very near one or zero.
Great comment—people make this mistake a lot. This should be promoted to a top level post.
Great comment—people make this mistake a lot. This should be promoted to a top level post.