Yes, if we are to take a decision, we need the numbers. I wouldn’t say that a decision taken without numbers factored in, can be better, all else being equal. I’d say it can be worse, or equally good. Equally good if the numbers used are as good as numbers that would have been obtained through a random number generator. So even though numbers are ok, seeing a definite probability estimate put forward as if it was significantly better than a random luck guess, is a misuse I think.
When I see one of those, it makes me think of the other; in the absence of a particular reason, a detailed analysis, or a mechanism explaining “why”, then I might be tempted to think both estimates rely on the same rule of thumb.
“A news story about an Australian national lottery that was just starting up, interviewed a man on the street, asking him if he would play. He said yes. Then they asked him what he thought his odds were of winning. “Fifty-fifty,” he said, “either I win or I don’t.”
“The probability that human civilization will survive into the sufficiently far future (my estimate: 50%)”
As to the fact that an overwhelming majority of people don’t just care about themselves, I agree. Even avowed selfish people still ought to have (barring abnormal neurology) some mindware buried in that brain of theirs, that could cause them to care about others, and possibly even sacrifice their life for them.
Yes, if we are to take a decision, we need the numbers. I wouldn’t say that a decision taken without numbers factored in, can be better, all else being equal. I’d say it can be worse, or equally good. Equally good if the numbers used are as good as numbers that would have been obtained through a random number generator. So even though numbers are ok, seeing a definite probability estimate put forward as if it was significantly better than a random luck guess, is a misuse I think.
When I see one of those, it makes me think of the other; in the absence of a particular reason, a detailed analysis, or a mechanism explaining “why”, then I might be tempted to think both estimates rely on the same rule of thumb.
“A news story about an Australian national lottery that was just starting up, interviewed a man on the street, asking him if he would play. He said yes. Then they asked him what he thought his odds were of winning. “Fifty-fifty,” he said, “either I win or I don’t.”
“The probability that human civilization will survive into the sufficiently far future (my estimate: 50%)”
As to the fact that an overwhelming majority of people don’t just care about themselves, I agree. Even avowed selfish people still ought to have (barring abnormal neurology) some mindware buried in that brain of theirs, that could cause them to care about others, and possibly even sacrifice their life for them.