The parallel to the nuclear case doesn’t work: Successfully building nuclear weapons is to China’s advantage. Successfully building a dangerously misaligned AI is not. (not in national, party, nor personal interest)
The clear path to regulation working with China is to get them to realize the scale of the risk—and that the risk applies even if only they continue rushing forward.
It’s not an easy path, but it’s not obvious that convincing China that going forward is foolish is any harder than convincing the US, UK....
Conditional on international buy-in on the risk, the game theory looks very different from the nuclear case. (granted, it’s also worse in some ways, since the upsides of [defecting-and-getting-lucky] are much higher)
The parallel to the nuclear case doesn’t work:
Successfully building nuclear weapons is to China’s advantage.
Successfully building a dangerously misaligned AI is not. (not in national, party, nor personal interest)
The clear path to regulation working with China is to get them to realize the scale of the risk—and that the risk applies even if only they continue rushing forward.
It’s not an easy path, but it’s not obvious that convincing China that going forward is foolish is any harder than convincing the US, UK....
Conditional on international buy-in on the risk, the game theory looks very different from the nuclear case.
(granted, it’s also worse in some ways, since the upsides of [defecting-and-getting-lucky] are much higher)