•I don’t think that it’s clear that you need more evidence than GiveWell is capable of providing to believe that GiveWell’s top rated charities have an expected impact comparable to what they ostensibly do. As far as I know, there’s no evidence that health interventions of the type that VillageReach and StopTB have any systemic negative side effects. I don’t see anything in the interview with Shikwati that points to the idea that such interventions can be expected to have negative side effects. Do you?
•See this GiveWell research message board post for GiveWell founder Holden’s current position on Malthusian problems. In regard to the possibility of aid giving rise to disastrously bad government, I see no reason to expect that the sort of work that VillageReach and StopTB do is more likely to give rise to disastrously bad government than it is to prevent disastrously bad government. If you have reasons for believing that VillageReach and StopTB systematically promote Malthusian problems or disastrously bad governments I would be interested hearing them.
•I agree that Peter Singer and his colleagues are often absurd. His analysis often fails to take into account features of human psychology. I find him unpleasantly arrogant. That being said, I give him major credit for making some effort to improve society by writing “The Life You Can Save,” even though his effort is suboptimal on account of being off-putting to people like you.
•Again, the main point of my post is to encourage people to experiment with donating a sizable fraction of their income with a view toward maximizing their positive social impact, not to encourage people to donate to charities working on improving health in the developing world.
As far as I know, there’s no evidence that health interventions of the type that VillageReach and StopTB have any systemic negative side effects. I don’t see anything in the interview with Shikwati that points to the idea that such interventions can be expected to have negative side effects. Do you?
It seems like the main point of our disagreement is that you believe that the effects of interventions in remote parts of the world can be assessed in a straightforward way using some basic common-sense criteria, while I am much more skeptical and wary of the real-world complexity and the law of unintended consequences. As a general principle, absent some extremely strong evidence to the contrary, I don’t believe that even the most resourceful and well-intentioned people really know what they’re doing when they try to influence things in extremely distant and alien parts of the world, even if their intervention seems so purely benevolent that you can’t even think of what might possibly go wrong.
So, to answer your question, yes, I do see a multitude of possibilities for how even the most benevolent-seeming interventions can go wrong, including these ones, and I distrust any simple analysis that purports to account for their effects fully. To answer whether these possibilities correspond exactly to the specific things mentioned by Shikwati, I would need to know much more about the specific details of how these organizations work than it’s possible to find out from the public information about them. In particular, when it comes to the issues of Malthusian problems and abetting bad government, I don’t find your replies satisfactory. The mechanisms of these problems are clear and straightforward, and they’ve been observed many times historically up to the present day. To be convinced that some intervention is worth supporting, I need to see strong evidence to the contrary, for these issues as well as numerous others. They are the ones asking for my money, after all.
If someone claims to have an airtight case that a certain intervention in a distant part of the world really is worth supporting, the burden of proof is on them. And yes, they have an awfully high bar to clear, but given the sordid history of well-intentioned interventions among distant strangers throughout the last century or so, it’s impossible not to be either naive or strongly skeptical.
multifoliaterose, thanks for the link to GiveWell—I find it much more useful than Charity Navigator.
Unintended consequences need not be bad consequences. Given the relationship between health and birth rates, I’m aware of much more evidence pointing to the decrease than the increase of Malthusian problems by improving health. But then, given this data presented by Hans Rosling, Malthusian problems may not be relevant in much of the world.
•I don’t think that it’s clear that you need more evidence than GiveWell is capable of providing to believe that GiveWell’s top rated charities have an expected impact comparable to what they ostensibly do. As far as I know, there’s no evidence that health interventions of the type that VillageReach and StopTB have any systemic negative side effects. I don’t see anything in the interview with Shikwati that points to the idea that such interventions can be expected to have negative side effects. Do you?
•See this GiveWell research message board post for GiveWell founder Holden’s current position on Malthusian problems. In regard to the possibility of aid giving rise to disastrously bad government, I see no reason to expect that the sort of work that VillageReach and StopTB do is more likely to give rise to disastrously bad government than it is to prevent disastrously bad government. If you have reasons for believing that VillageReach and StopTB systematically promote Malthusian problems or disastrously bad governments I would be interested hearing them.
•I agree that Peter Singer and his colleagues are often absurd. His analysis often fails to take into account features of human psychology. I find him unpleasantly arrogant. That being said, I give him major credit for making some effort to improve society by writing “The Life You Can Save,” even though his effort is suboptimal on account of being off-putting to people like you.
•Again, the main point of my post is to encourage people to experiment with donating a sizable fraction of their income with a view toward maximizing their positive social impact, not to encourage people to donate to charities working on improving health in the developing world.
multifoliaterose:
It seems like the main point of our disagreement is that you believe that the effects of interventions in remote parts of the world can be assessed in a straightforward way using some basic common-sense criteria, while I am much more skeptical and wary of the real-world complexity and the law of unintended consequences. As a general principle, absent some extremely strong evidence to the contrary, I don’t believe that even the most resourceful and well-intentioned people really know what they’re doing when they try to influence things in extremely distant and alien parts of the world, even if their intervention seems so purely benevolent that you can’t even think of what might possibly go wrong.
So, to answer your question, yes, I do see a multitude of possibilities for how even the most benevolent-seeming interventions can go wrong, including these ones, and I distrust any simple analysis that purports to account for their effects fully. To answer whether these possibilities correspond exactly to the specific things mentioned by Shikwati, I would need to know much more about the specific details of how these organizations work than it’s possible to find out from the public information about them. In particular, when it comes to the issues of Malthusian problems and abetting bad government, I don’t find your replies satisfactory. The mechanisms of these problems are clear and straightforward, and they’ve been observed many times historically up to the present day. To be convinced that some intervention is worth supporting, I need to see strong evidence to the contrary, for these issues as well as numerous others. They are the ones asking for my money, after all.
If someone claims to have an airtight case that a certain intervention in a distant part of the world really is worth supporting, the burden of proof is on them. And yes, they have an awfully high bar to clear, but given the sordid history of well-intentioned interventions among distant strangers throughout the last century or so, it’s impossible not to be either naive or strongly skeptical.
multifoliaterose, thanks for the link to GiveWell—I find it much more useful than Charity Navigator.
Unintended consequences need not be bad consequences. Given the relationship between health and birth rates, I’m aware of much more evidence pointing to the decrease than the increase of Malthusian problems by improving health. But then, given this data presented by Hans Rosling, Malthusian problems may not be relevant in much of the world.