I really liked your concrete example. I had first only read your first paragraphs, highlighted this as something interesting with potentially huge upsides, but I felt like it was really hard to tell for me whether the thing you are describing was something I already do or not. After reading the rest I was able to just think about the question myself and notice that thinking about the explicit likelihood ratios is something I am used to doing. Though I did not go into quite as much detail as you did, which I blame partially on motivation and partially as “this skill has a higher ceiling than I would have previously thought”.
I really liked your concrete example. I had first only read your first paragraphs, highlighted this as something interesting with potentially huge upsides, but I felt like it was really hard to tell for me whether the thing you are describing was something I already do or not. After reading the rest I was able to just think about the question myself and notice that thinking about the explicit likelihood ratios is something I am used to doing. Though I did not go into quite as much detail as you did, which I blame partially on motivation and partially as “this skill has a higher ceiling than I would have previously thought”.