Idea: Expert prediction markets on predictions made by theories in the field, with $ for being a good predictor and lots of $ for designing and running a later-replicated experiment whose result the expert community strongly anti-predicted. Lots of problems with the plan, but surprisal-based compensation seems interesting and I haven’t heard about it before.
Idea: Expert prediction markets on predictions made by theories in the field, with $ for being a good predictor and lots of $ for designing and running a later-replicated experiment whose result the expert community strongly anti-predicted. Lots of problems with the plan, but surprisal-based compensation seems interesting and I haven’t heard about it before.