The situation may be a priori unlikely, but I don’t think it’s at all presumptuous to argue that the amount of evidence available to us is enough to shift the likelihood upwards dramatically.
The Doomsday Argument applies to any population of any species, ever. I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that humans are in a pretty exceptional position out of the set of all known species.
The situation may be a priori unlikely, but I don’t think it’s at all presumptuous to argue that the amount of evidence available to us is enough to shift the likelihood upwards dramatically.
The Doomsday Argument applies to any population of any species, ever. I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that humans are in a pretty exceptional position out of the set of all known species.