On a related note… has Eliezer successfully predicted anything? I’d like to see his beliefs pay rent, so to speak. Has his interpretation of quantum mechanics predicted any phenomena which have since been observed? Has his understanding of computer science and AI lead him to accurately predict milestones in the field before they have happened?
All in all the “beliefs paying rent” is not about making big predictions in an environment where you are prohibitively uncertain (re: No one Knows what Science Doesn’t Know) but rather that you should not ever believe anything because it is interesting. The beliefs that pay rent are ones such as “things fall down when dropped,” which are readily testable and constrain your anticipation accordingly: “i do not expect anything to fall upwards.” (helium balloons are a notable exception, but for that look at Leaky Generalizations) The ones that don’t pay rent are ones such as “humans have epiphenomenal inner listeners,” as it completely fail to constrain what you anticipate to experience.
On a related note… has Eliezer successfully predicted anything? I’d like to see his beliefs pay rent, so to speak. Has his interpretation of quantum mechanics predicted any phenomena which have since been observed? Has his understanding of computer science and AI lead him to accurately predict milestones in the field before they have happened?
All in all the “beliefs paying rent” is not about making big predictions in an environment where you are prohibitively uncertain (re: No one Knows what Science Doesn’t Know) but rather that you should not ever believe anything because it is interesting. The beliefs that pay rent are ones such as “things fall down when dropped,” which are readily testable and constrain your anticipation accordingly: “i do not expect anything to fall upwards.” (helium balloons are a notable exception, but for that look at Leaky Generalizations) The ones that don’t pay rent are ones such as “humans have epiphenomenal inner listeners,” as it completely fail to constrain what you anticipate to experience.