Really interesting post. One detail I thought might be off:
“Conflicts that have killed more than 20 people per 100,000 appear to have become steadily more common since 1600. This is what you’d predict if there was a long-run increase in the destructiveness … of military technology”
I would draw a different conclusion. I think its related to the fact that four political units control 30% of the landmass. I imagine that any given war fought in 1600′s is just as destructive for the states involved in that war, but by 1914 a war involves more of the planet. For example, in the 1600′s there was the English Civil war. Google says that 4.5% of the UK population was killed. But that was not particularly significant to the global deaths by war because it was just the UK. However the world wars both involved a sizable fraction of the entire planet, so with even a much lower than 4.5% death rate for the states involved the world was noticeably depopulated. I think the main shift is from a world where each area fights destructive local wars in an uncorrelated way to one where everyone does their fighting at the same time.
Really interesting post. One detail I thought might be off:
“Conflicts that have killed more than 20 people per 100,000 appear to have become steadily more common since 1600. This is what you’d predict if there was a long-run increase in the destructiveness … of military technology”
I would draw a different conclusion. I think its related to the fact that four political units control 30% of the landmass. I imagine that any given war fought in 1600′s is just as destructive for the states involved in that war, but by 1914 a war involves more of the planet. For example, in the 1600′s there was the English Civil war. Google says that 4.5% of the UK population was killed. But that was not particularly significant to the global deaths by war because it was just the UK. However the world wars both involved a sizable fraction of the entire planet, so with even a much lower than 4.5% death rate for the states involved the world was noticeably depopulated. I think the main shift is from a world where each area fights destructive local wars in an uncorrelated way to one where everyone does their fighting at the same time.
Good point!