I think these are the wrong types of questions to forecast for history, you want to ask much loower resolution questions like: Who will end up with more resources after this war? What country will be dominant in 20 years time, etc.
These questions are subjective obviously, but you can still do a decent job at figuring out how good you are at predicting the future form the past. One way you could resolve them is ask someone who’s analysis of history you respect.
I think these are the wrong types of questions to forecast for history, you want to ask much loower resolution questions like: Who will end up with more resources after this war? What country will be dominant in 20 years time, etc.
These questions are subjective obviously, but you can still do a decent job at figuring out how good you are at predicting the future form the past. One way you could resolve them is ask someone who’s analysis of history you respect.
They’re what the OP is looking to forecast, though. I pulled “money in circulation” example straight from the OP’s post.
Well, I would be happy with whatever I can get. I’m not attached to those particular metrics.