This is not scientific, and it’s still possible to be an artifact of a low sample size, but my impression from following political real-money prediction markets is that they just have a persistent republican bias in high-profile races, maybe because of 2016. I think you could have made good money by just betting on Democrats to win in every reasonably big market since then.
They just don’t seem well calibrated in practice. I really want a single, widely-used, high-quality crypto market to exist.
This is not scientific, and it’s still possible to be an artifact of a low sample size, but my impression from following political real-money prediction markets is that they just have a persistent republican bias in high-profile races, maybe because of 2016. I think you could have made good money by just betting on Democrats to win in every reasonably big market since then.
They just don’t seem well calibrated in practice. I really want a single, widely-used, high-quality crypto market to exist.