I flip a coin 10 times and observe the sequence HTHTHHTTHH. Obviously, the coin is rigged to produce that specific sequence: the “rigged to produce HTHTHHTTHH” hypothesis predicts the observed outcome with probability 1, whereas the “fair coin” hypothesis predicts that outcome with probability 2−10≈ 0.00098.
I flip a coin 10 times and observe the sequence HTHTHHTTHH. Obviously, the coin is rigged to produce that specific sequence: the “rigged to produce HTHTHHTTHH” hypothesis predicts the observed outcome with probability 1, whereas the “fair coin” hypothesis predicts that outcome with probability 2−10≈ 0.00098.