The unspoken but implicit argument is that Russia doesn’t need a reason to nuke us. If we give them the Arctic there’s no question, we will get nuked.
Ah, interesting, I didn’t read that assumption into it. I read it as “The power balance will have changed, which will make Russia’s international bargaining position way stronger because now it has a credible threat against mainland USA.”
I see the thing you’re pointing out as implicit though. Like an appeal to raw animal fear.
For a successful nuclear first strike to be performed Russia must locate all of our military assets (plus likely that of our NATO allies as well), take them all out at once, all while the CIA somehow never gets wind of a plan.
That makes a lot of sense. I didn’t know about the distributed and secret nature of our nuclear capabilities… but it’s kind of obvious that that’s how it’d be set up, now that you say so. Thank you for spelling this out.
Reactions like yours are thus part of what I was counting on when making the argument. It works because in general I can count on people not having prior knowledge. (don’t worry, you’re not alone)
Makes sense!
And I wasn’t worried. I’m actually not concerned about sounding like (or being!) an idiot. I’m just me, and I have the questions I do! But thank you for the kindness in your note here.
It also seems rather incongruous with most people’s model of the world […]. Suppose Russia was prepared to nuke the US, and had a credible first strike capability. Why isn’t Uncle Sam rushing to defend his security interests? Why haven’t pundits and politicians sounded the alarm? Why has there been no diplomatic incidents? A second Cuban missile crisis? A Russian nuclear attack somewhere else?
I gotta admit, my faith in the whole system is pretty low on axes like this. The collective response to Covid was idiotic. I could imagine the system doing some stupid things simply because it’s too gummed up and geriatric to do better.
That’s not my main guess about what’s happening here. I honestly just didn’t think through this level of thing when I first read your arctic argument from your debate. But collective ineptitude is plausible enough to me that the things you’re pointing out here just don’t land as damning.
But they definitely are points against. Thank you for pointing them out!
I hope that answers your question! Is everything clear now?
For this instance, yes!
There’s some kind of generalization that hasn’t happened for me yet. I’m not sure what to ask exactly. I think this whole topic (RE what you’re saying about Dark Arts) is bumping into a weak spot in my mind that I wasn’t aware was weak. I’ll need to watch it & observe other examples & let it settle in.
But for this case: yes, much clearer!
Thank you for taking the time to spell all this out!
I think that part of it is probably you not having much experience with debate or debate adjacent fields. (quite understandable, given how toxic it’s become). It took me some lived experience to recognize it, after all.
If you want to see it at work, I recommend just tuning into any politician during a debate. I think you’ll start recognizing stuff pretty quick. Wish you happy hunting in any case.
Ah, interesting, I didn’t read that assumption into it. I read it as “The power balance will have changed, which will make Russia’s international bargaining position way stronger because now it has a credible threat against mainland USA.”
I see the thing you’re pointing out as implicit though. Like an appeal to raw animal fear.
That makes a lot of sense. I didn’t know about the distributed and secret nature of our nuclear capabilities… but it’s kind of obvious that that’s how it’d be set up, now that you say so. Thank you for spelling this out.
Makes sense!
And I wasn’t worried. I’m actually not concerned about sounding like (or being!) an idiot. I’m just me, and I have the questions I do! But thank you for the kindness in your note here.
I gotta admit, my faith in the whole system is pretty low on axes like this. The collective response to Covid was idiotic. I could imagine the system doing some stupid things simply because it’s too gummed up and geriatric to do better.
That’s not my main guess about what’s happening here. I honestly just didn’t think through this level of thing when I first read your arctic argument from your debate. But collective ineptitude is plausible enough to me that the things you’re pointing out here just don’t land as damning.
But they definitely are points against. Thank you for pointing them out!
For this instance, yes!
There’s some kind of generalization that hasn’t happened for me yet. I’m not sure what to ask exactly. I think this whole topic (RE what you’re saying about Dark Arts) is bumping into a weak spot in my mind that I wasn’t aware was weak. I’ll need to watch it & observe other examples & let it settle in.
But for this case: yes, much clearer!
Thank you for taking the time to spell all this out!
Of course. Glad you enjoyed!
I think that part of it is probably you not having much experience with debate or debate adjacent fields. (quite understandable, given how toxic it’s become). It took me some lived experience to recognize it, after all.
If you want to see it at work, I recommend just tuning into any politician during a debate. I think you’ll start recognizing stuff pretty quick. Wish you happy hunting in any case.