Neither analysis is correct. Both are incomplete. The outsider’s viewpoint is less wrong.
The first person argument presented here finds a local maximum and stops there. Yes, if they ignore Omega’s abilities and climb the two-box hill then they can get 1000 dollars more. No mention of whether they’re on the right hill, and no analysis of whether this is reasonable given their knowledge of Omega.
The outsider’s view as stated fails to account for a possibly limited ability of the decision-maker to choose what sort of decision-maker they can be. Omega knows (in this infallible predictor version), but the decision-maker might not. Or they might know but be powerless to update (not all possible agents have even local “free will”).
Neither analysis is correct. Both are incomplete. The outsider’s viewpoint is less wrong.
The first person argument presented here finds a local maximum and stops there. Yes, if they ignore Omega’s abilities and climb the two-box hill then they can get 1000 dollars more. No mention of whether they’re on the right hill, and no analysis of whether this is reasonable given their knowledge of Omega.
The outsider’s view as stated fails to account for a possibly limited ability of the decision-maker to choose what sort of decision-maker they can be. Omega knows (in this infallible predictor version), but the decision-maker might not. Or they might know but be powerless to update (not all possible agents have even local “free will”).