I think I’m confused about something in your reference-class argument here. I’m going to say it in a very boring way, on the assumption someone will come by and tell me how I’m wrong shortly: It seems like you’re saying that the right reference class is “all possible minds”. But isn’t the right reference class “minds that look like humans in the 21st century at the (putative) dawn of AI”?
Separately, do we know that we expect all sims to have equal distributions of real to unreal persons as we believe to be the case? I don’t think I’ve ever met someone from lots of countries; why couldn’t I be in the ancestor sim where most persons are p-zombies running on simplified scripts unless they’re needed to suddenly have detailed interiority “for the plot”?
I think I’m confused about something in your reference-class argument here. I’m going to say it in a very boring way, on the assumption someone will come by and tell me how I’m wrong shortly: It seems like you’re saying that the right reference class is “all possible minds”. But isn’t the right reference class “minds that look like humans in the 21st century at the (putative) dawn of AI”?
Separately, do we know that we expect all sims to have equal distributions of real to unreal persons as we believe to be the case? I don’t think I’ve ever met someone from lots of countries; why couldn’t I be in the ancestor sim where most persons are p-zombies running on simplified scripts unless they’re needed to suddenly have detailed interiority “for the plot”?