This is just an application of the “Self-Sampling Assumption” (or “principle of mediocrity”).
There will be many more observer moments in a “post-human” society than a “pre-posthuman” one (at human level or lower), because the population is much larger and observers live longer. So if the universe contains both sorts of society, a typical observer (or observer moment) would be much more likely to be in a “post-human” society. If the universe only contains “pre-posthuman” societies (e.g. because societies self-destruct before reaching a post-human level of technology) then an observer would have to be in one of the “pre-posthuman” ones because there aren’t any others.
I’d suggest you look at Nick Bostrom’s web-site for more details, including his discussion on reference classes.
P.S. It is also possible to use the “Self-Indication Assumption” as an alternative to the “Self-Sampling Assumption”. Or to use a non-anthropic model like “Full Non-Indexical Conditioning”. But these don’t get rid of the argument that we are unlikely to turn into a post-human society, and for some rather interesting reasons, which Katja Grace discusses here
So far, I think reference classes are the only counter-argument that might work.
This is just an application of the “Self-Sampling Assumption” (or “principle of mediocrity”).
There will be many more observer moments in a “post-human” society than a “pre-posthuman” one (at human level or lower), because the population is much larger and observers live longer. So if the universe contains both sorts of society, a typical observer (or observer moment) would be much more likely to be in a “post-human” society. If the universe only contains “pre-posthuman” societies (e.g. because societies self-destruct before reaching a post-human level of technology) then an observer would have to be in one of the “pre-posthuman” ones because there aren’t any others.
I’d suggest you look at Nick Bostrom’s web-site for more details, including his discussion on reference classes.
P.S. It is also possible to use the “Self-Indication Assumption” as an alternative to the “Self-Sampling Assumption”. Or to use a non-anthropic model like “Full Non-Indexical Conditioning”. But these don’t get rid of the argument that we are unlikely to turn into a post-human society, and for some rather interesting reasons, which Katja Grace discusses here
So far, I think reference classes are the only counter-argument that might work.
I figured the reasoning behind that. I just thought it would be a good idea for you to post the explanation with your argument.
Ah, thanks!