How do you coordinate so that many others with the same strategy don’t cancel out the same idiot? If you also consider everyone who uses strategy as an idiot, it could work, but it seems difficult to achieve in practice. I think it would be more effective to actually make a judgment of what you would do if you were in charge, and then vote that way.
Part of the purpose of this heuristic is that you can use it when you can’t make such a judgement.
The strategy only comes into effect when there are many idiots on one side of a 2-sided issue. Until I beome a famous political theorist, it is safe to assume there are more such idiots than people using this strategy.
So, in order to not be counterproductive, the strategy needs an environment in which it will be ineffective? Or are you suggesting that the difference in idiots on the two sides will be larger than the cancelers, but smaller than the cancelers combined with the experts? I think verifying this in a particular situation would be difficult.
On the other hand, if you actually have a position on the issue, you can use strategies that go beyond voting, like trying to persuade people. Even trying to persuade people not to vote because of their own ignorance could be more effective, if you really can’t make a good judgment.
The difference in the number of idiots on the two sides is greater than the number of cancelers plus the number of experts. The cancelers have not made a difference. The impact is neutral.
The number of cancelers is sufficient to narrow the difference in the number of idiots to smaller than the number of experts (who have presumably achieved an expert consensus). The experts voting as a block can sway the election either way. The cancelers have enabled the experts to make a decision. The expected impact is positive (50% chance the experts change the decision, 50% the idiots were right anyways).
The number of cancelers is greater than the difference in the number of idiots plus the number of experts. The cancelers have changed the results of the election, without empowering the experts. The expected impact is neutral. (50% chance the new decision is right, 50% it is wrong. It is worse if the strategy convinces you to cancel out the idiots you think are a little more likely to be right. If you are canceling the idiots you think are a little more likely to be wrong, you have other reasons to vote that way.)
Having a reliable positive impact depends on being in situation 2, which, given a small number of experts, seems unlikely unless you are careful to only apply the strategy in this case, which would be a lot of work. I expect other strategies to get better results for the effort.
How do you coordinate so that many others with the same strategy don’t cancel out the same idiot? If you also consider everyone who uses strategy as an idiot, it could work, but it seems difficult to achieve in practice. I think it would be more effective to actually make a judgment of what you would do if you were in charge, and then vote that way.
Part of the purpose of this heuristic is that you can use it when you can’t make such a judgement.
The strategy only comes into effect when there are many idiots on one side of a 2-sided issue. Until I beome a famous political theorist, it is safe to assume there are more such idiots than people using this strategy.
So, in order to not be counterproductive, the strategy needs an environment in which it will be ineffective? Or are you suggesting that the difference in idiots on the two sides will be larger than the cancelers, but smaller than the cancelers combined with the experts? I think verifying this in a particular situation would be difficult.
On the other hand, if you actually have a position on the issue, you can use strategies that go beyond voting, like trying to persuade people. Even trying to persuade people not to vote because of their own ignorance could be more effective, if you really can’t make a good judgment.
Sorry—I can’t figure out what you’re asking in the 1st paragraph. I agree with your second paragraph.
Consider the following cases:
The difference in the number of idiots on the two sides is greater than the number of cancelers plus the number of experts. The cancelers have not made a difference. The impact is neutral.
The number of cancelers is sufficient to narrow the difference in the number of idiots to smaller than the number of experts (who have presumably achieved an expert consensus). The experts voting as a block can sway the election either way. The cancelers have enabled the experts to make a decision. The expected impact is positive (50% chance the experts change the decision, 50% the idiots were right anyways).
The number of cancelers is greater than the difference in the number of idiots plus the number of experts. The cancelers have changed the results of the election, without empowering the experts. The expected impact is neutral. (50% chance the new decision is right, 50% it is wrong. It is worse if the strategy convinces you to cancel out the idiots you think are a little more likely to be right. If you are canceling the idiots you think are a little more likely to be wrong, you have other reasons to vote that way.)
Having a reliable positive impact depends on being in situation 2, which, given a small number of experts, seems unlikely unless you are careful to only apply the strategy in this case, which would be a lot of work. I expect other strategies to get better results for the effort.