Building society the first time around, we were able to take advantage of various useful natural resources such as relatively plentiful coal and (later) oil. After a nuclear war or some other civilization-wrecking catastrophe, it might be Very Difficult Indeed to rebuild without those resources at our disposal. It’s difficult enough even now, with everything basically still working nicely, to see how to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, as for various reasons many people think we should do. Now imagine trying to build a nuclear power industry or highly efficient solar cells with our existing energy infrastructure in ruins.
So it looks to me as if (1) our best prospects for long-term x-risk avoidance all involve advanced technology (space travel, AI, nanothingies, …) and (2) a major not-immediately-existential catastrophe could seriously jeapordize our prospects of ever developing such technology, so (3) such a catastrophe should be regarded as a big increase in x-risk.
I’ve heard arguments for and against “it might turn out to be too hard the second time around”. I think overall that it’s more likely than not that we would eventually succeed in rebuilding a technological society, but that’s the strongest I could put it, ie it’s very plausible that we would never do so.
If enough of our existing thinking survives, the thinking time that rebuilding civilization would give us might move things a little in our favour WRT AI++, MNT etc. I don’t know which side does better on this tradeoff. However I seriously doubt that trying to bring about the collapse of civilization is the most efficient way to mitigate existential risk.
Also, and I hate to be this selfish about it but there it is, if civilization ends I definitely die either way, and I’d kind of prefer not to.
Building society the first time around, we were able to take advantage of various useful natural resources such as relatively plentiful coal and (later) oil. After a nuclear war or some other civilization-wrecking catastrophe, it might be Very Difficult Indeed to rebuild without those resources at our disposal.
We have a huge mountain of coal, and will do for the next hundred years or so. Doing without doesn’t seem very likely.
How easily accessible is that coal to people whose civilization has collapsed, taking most of the industrial machinery with it? (That’s a genuine question. Naively, it seems like the easiest-to-get-at bits would have been mined out first, leaving the harder bits. How much harder they are, and how big a problem that would be, I have no idea.)
Building society the first time around, we were able to take advantage of various useful natural resources such as relatively plentiful coal and (later) oil. After a nuclear war or some other civilization-wrecking catastrophe, it might be Very Difficult Indeed to rebuild without those resources at our disposal. It’s difficult enough even now, with everything basically still working nicely, to see how to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, as for various reasons many people think we should do. Now imagine trying to build a nuclear power industry or highly efficient solar cells with our existing energy infrastructure in ruins.
So it looks to me as if (1) our best prospects for long-term x-risk avoidance all involve advanced technology (space travel, AI, nanothingies, …) and (2) a major not-immediately-existential catastrophe could seriously jeapordize our prospects of ever developing such technology, so (3) such a catastrophe should be regarded as a big increase in x-risk.
I’ve heard arguments for and against “it might turn out to be too hard the second time around”. I think overall that it’s more likely than not that we would eventually succeed in rebuilding a technological society, but that’s the strongest I could put it, ie it’s very plausible that we would never do so.
If enough of our existing thinking survives, the thinking time that rebuilding civilization would give us might move things a little in our favour WRT AI++, MNT etc. I don’t know which side does better on this tradeoff. However I seriously doubt that trying to bring about the collapse of civilization is the most efficient way to mitigate existential risk.
Also, and I hate to be this selfish about it but there it is, if civilization ends I definitely die either way, and I’d kind of prefer not to.
We have a huge mountain of coal, and will do for the next hundred years or so. Doing without doesn’t seem very likely.
How easily accessible is that coal to people whose civilization has collapsed, taking most of the industrial machinery with it? (That’s a genuine question. Naively, it seems like the easiest-to-get-at bits would have been mined out first, leaving the harder bits. How much harder they are, and how big a problem that would be, I have no idea.)
It’s probably fair to say that some of the low hanging fossil fuel fruit have been taken.