Thanks for clarifying and I hope your research goes well. If I’m not mistaken, you can see the 0.1% calculation as the product of three things: the probability nuclear war happens, the probability that if it happens it’s such that it prevents any future positive singularities that otherwise would have happened, and the probability a positive singularity would otherwise have happened. If the first and third probabilities are, say, 1⁄5 and 1⁄4, then the answer will be 1⁄20 of the middle probability, so your 0.1%-1% answer corresponds to a 2%-20% chance that if a nuclear war happens then it’s such that it prevents any future positive singularities that would otherwise have happened. Certainly the lower end and maybe the upper end of that range seem like they could plausibly end up being close to our best estimate. But note that you have to look at the net effect after taking into account effects in both directions; I would still put substantial probability on this estimate ending up effectively negative, also. (Probabilities can’t really go negative, so the interpretation I gave above doesn’t really work, but I hope you can see what I mean.)
note that you have to look at the net effect after taking into account effects in both directions; I would still put substantial probability on this estimate ending up effectively negative, also.
I agree and should have been more explicit in taking this into account. However, note that if one assigns a 2:1 odds ratio for (0.1%-1% decrease in x-risk)/(same size increase in x-risk) then the expected value of preventing nuclear war doesn’t drop below 1⁄3 of what it would be if there wasn’t the possibility of nuclear war increasing x-risk: still on the same rough order of magnitude.
Thanks for clarifying and I hope your research goes well. If I’m not mistaken, you can see the 0.1% calculation as the product of three things: the probability nuclear war happens, the probability that if it happens it’s such that it prevents any future positive singularities that otherwise would have happened, and the probability a positive singularity would otherwise have happened. If the first and third probabilities are, say, 1⁄5 and 1⁄4, then the answer will be 1⁄20 of the middle probability, so your 0.1%-1% answer corresponds to a 2%-20% chance that if a nuclear war happens then it’s such that it prevents any future positive singularities that would otherwise have happened. Certainly the lower end and maybe the upper end of that range seem like they could plausibly end up being close to our best estimate. But note that you have to look at the net effect after taking into account effects in both directions; I would still put substantial probability on this estimate ending up effectively negative, also. (Probabilities can’t really go negative, so the interpretation I gave above doesn’t really work, but I hope you can see what I mean.)
I agree and should have been more explicit in taking this into account. However, note that if one assigns a 2:1 odds ratio for (0.1%-1% decrease in x-risk)/(same size increase in x-risk) then the expected value of preventing nuclear war doesn’t drop below 1⁄3 of what it would be if there wasn’t the possibility of nuclear war increasing x-risk: still on the same rough order of magnitude.